Daily affairs in Scotland came to a grinding halt last Thursday as 85% of the electorate cast their vote in the independence referendum. The outcome was 55% in favour to remain part of the United Kingdom, which was a surprising result for many voters who believed that the result would be much closer. Polls such as YouGov predicted 52% to 48%, Ipsos Mori’s predicted a 53% lead for the no camp, as did Survation, as was reported in The Guardian.
Interestingly the most accurate predictor of the Scottish referendum result came from an unexpected platform: Grindr, the popular Tinder-like hook up app for gay and bisexual men.
The Guardian reported that Tom Court polled a sample of 655 men in Edinburgh, Scotland’s capital, about how they were planning to vote in the referendum. Court’s poll indicated a 56% no vote, which was a far more accurate prediction than many of the final night polls.
Findings like this may result in a turn towards social media to predict voting outcomes, rather than a reliance on more traditional methods.
The infographic below shows the activity of #IndyRef on Twitter during the referendum.
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